My blog

Tag: Indian Century

  • This will be a Promising Indian Century”

    Theresa Villiers

     

    I believe this will be an Indian century and if the UK is going to seize the opportunities that presents, we need to step up our engagement with India.

     

    In my former role as MP for Barnet, I was privileged to represent a significant British Indian community. This has left me with an enduring enthusiasm for India.

     

    The country has made phenomenal economic progress over recent years, with growth accelerated by reforms delivered by the Prime Minister Modi’s Government. It is already an economic superpower. It recently became the fifth largest economy in the world, and analysts predict it could overtake Germany and Japan to hit the third place spot by 2027.

     

    India is well-positioned to take advantage of the growing realisation in the West that over-dependence on China poses serious risks our prosperity and security. The Covid pandemic starkly demonstrated the pressing need to diversify global supply chains and reduce reliance on China. That makes India a more important partner than ever before.

     

    Our two countries clearly have much in common. English continues to be one of India’s most important official languages. The principle of rule of law is accepted, and the common law system in operation when India gained its independence remains in use.

     

    Despite these positive legacies of empire, we should not be naïve about the colonial era. In their near 200 year involvement with India, the British authorities frequently adopted approaches which would be unacceptable in the modern era. Tragedies such as the 1919 killings at Jallianwala Bagh, when soldiers opened fire on a crowd of unarmed protesters, still cause pain and grievance even today.

     

    But 77 years on from the departure of the British from India, the contested aspects of our shared past should not prevent us from capitalising on the huge amount that we have in common.

     

    We should also remember that influence has never been a one way street between our two countries. We may have left India a rail network and a legal system, but they gave us the numerals we use today, including the crucial concept of zero.

     

    Without Indian maths we might never have emerged from the Middle Ages in Europe. India’s massive cultural, mathematic and scientific influence on the world dates from as far back as the Greek and Roman era. There should be a much greater awareness of this, and I welcome William Dalrymple’s effort to put that right in his recent book “The Golden Road”.

     

    A great asset in enabling us to connect with the subcontinent is the Indian diaspora community. Often described as our ‘living bridge’, this community is one of the most successful minorities in Britain. Numbering just under two million according to the 2021 Census, it has strikingly high rates of professional qualifications and employment, and has made a huge contribution to the UK’s culture, economy and public services. Not only did the community give us our first non-white Prime Minister, the NHS would probably collapse without its British Indian doctors.

     

    British Indians have achieved an exemplary balance of integrating enthusiastically into UK society, whilst retaining a vibrant cultural and religious identity. This achievement is too often under-rated and overlooked.

     

    There are risks to be managed and hurdles to surmount when doing business in India. Despite the improvements delivered by “Modinomics”, bureaucratic processes can still be cumbersome.

     

    Even so, India-UK bilateral trade stood at £36.3 billion during the year 2022/23, an increase of 34.2% or £9.2 billion compared the previous year. Moreover, our universities have benefited from a rapid increase in overseas students from India.

     

    A striking example of the two countries working together successfully was the partnership between Oxford University, AstraZeneca, and Serum Institute of India, which delivered a Covid vaccine in record time.

     

    In conclusion, in a world which is becoming increasingly polarized and insecure, strengthening our ties with the planet’s biggest democracy should be a top foreign and trade policy priority.

     

    If the UK wants to benefit from Indian prospects and potential over the coming years we need our Government to devote real effort to this. If we don’t put in that work, other western countries will be only too happy to get ahead of us in the queue.

     

    We should deploy the networks of our Indian diaspora community as part of our outreach. We also need a pragmatic approach to visas, so our world class universities can continue to recruit talented Indian students.

     

    And we should actively promote India’s place at the top table of world affairs. Chairing the G20 summit in 2023 was a pivotal moment when India stepped up and assumed a new leadership role in relation to the Global South. As a democratic country that shares so many of our values, far better that India, not China, takes on that mantle.

     

    See also:

     

    Dinesh Dhamija: India’s 10 year reckoning

    India’s Legal Market Opening: A Game-Changer for UK Lawyers – Insights by Dinesh Dhamija

     

     

  • Modi’s election momentum

    Dinesh Dhamija

     

    Almost a decade has passed since Narendra Modi became Indian Prime Minister in 2014, yet he is still setting records for electoral popularity. Barring a catastrophe, he appears certain to win next year’s general election for a third five-year term.

    Just a few days ago, his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won three out of four contested state elections, taking both Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in the north of India from Congress and maintaining hold of Madhya Pradesh for an unprecedented fifth term. Only the recently formed southern state of Telangala voted for Congress.

    The arithmetic of Modi’s dominance is striking. Prior to the recent votes, the BJP and its allies-controlled states representing 45 per cent of the Indian population. Now they control 16 out of 29 states, equal to 60 per cent of the population. No Congress chief minister has been re-elected since 2014.

    Although state and national votes are fought on different criteria, Modi enjoys such widespread support – and the BJP campaigned this time explicitly on his record – that he should sail through the ballot next May.

    What explains this lengthy run? One factor is Modi’s appeal to women. They turn out in huge numbers to vote for the BJP, thanks to policies such as the Swachh Bharat (‘clean India’) mission to improve sanitation. This has improved not only standards of hygiene across India but security for women and girls. A welfare system that delivers benefits directly to women, rather than via their husbands, is equally valued.

    These days, an increasing number of women vote for the BJP even when their husbands vote for Congress – a novel sign of independence.

    In the recent elections, Modi doubled down on policies designed to win the female vote, promising 5kg of free grain per month to 800 million people. Having boosted India’s economy, projected the country’s power overseas, his personal modesty and devotion to Hinduism is a potent asset for the BJP to which Congress appears to have no answer.

    Modi’s argument that a vote for BJP would give them a ‘double engine’ of local and national representation has persuaded many former Congress supporters to switch sides. When they see the bounties disbursed to Modi’s home city of Ahmadabad in Gujarat or his constituency in Varanasi, they want a piece of the same pie.

    Congress is at a loss to know where to go next. The latest results were “deeply shocking,” said a spokeswoman. The old aura of the Gandhi-Nehru dynasty has worn thin, after decades of economic under-performance.

    There remain plenty of challenges, not least chronic unemployment, and under-investment in India’s manufacturing sector. But on the basis of his record so far, I think Modi richly deserves to win another term.

    As I write in my latest book The Indian Century, thanks to Modi: “In international affairs, India is no longer shy or cowed by other nations. It speaks with confidence and authority and acts with the country’s own interests at heart.”

    Dinesh Dhamija founded, built and sold online travel agency ebookers, before serving as a Member of the European Parliament. His latest book, The Indian Century, will be out soon.

     

  • Dinesh Dhamija: Indian Stock Markets End Year on a High

    Dinesh Dhamija

    In a year of milestones for India – most populous country, fastest growing large economy – here comes another: the country’s National Stock Exchange (NSE) is poised to overtake Hong Kong’s bourse and become the world’s seventh-largest exchange. For market-watchers, this is dramatic news. Indian stocks have traditionally failed to ignite global interest after false dawns created anxiety among investors.

    In 2023 those worries were replaced by sustained enthusiasm. The NSE virtually doubled its total market cap during the year to reach $3.7 trillion, while the fallout from China’s property market liquidity crunch hit Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index. As one analyst put it: “Strong consumption in India is attracting investors, with increased spending on property, luxury and higher-end goods by affluent Indians, as well as growing government capital expenditure on infrastructure.” Fund managers have taken note, diverting asset allocation from China to India and banking on a smooth political continuation in 2024, since Narendra Modi appears very likely to be re-elected in April and May’s General Election.

    The Nifty 50 Index – a weighted average of the largest listed Indian companies – reached a historic high in mid-December, having risen by more than 8 per cent in four weeks, while the Hang Seng fell by 6.7 per cent over the same period. “China continues to underperform, and there are relatively few alternatives for investors who are focused on emerging equities,” said a Mumbai-based analyst.

    Brokers and fund managers report unprecedented interest from international investors, including many who “never bothered about investing in India,” according to Abhay Agarwal at Piper Serica Advisors. “For the first time, I’m seeing interest from very long-term investors, both strategic and financial, who are coming in taking a 10-year view rather than just a one-year view.”

    There is a self-sustaining aspect to this growth, as ever more observers, writers, analysts and investors jump on the Indian bandwagon. Could it be yet another mirage, destined to evaporate in 2024? Cautious commentators note that the overall Indian economy – as distinct from its stock markets – remains plagued by high unemployment among the fast-rising youth population, that government debt levels are high, and that the SME sector is struggling.

    As the Financial Times noted recently: “A sustained boom will require greater liberalisation from a government that had tended towards economic nationalism,” while state-backed companies and tariffs on foreign-made parts remains a drag on inward investment.

    Dinesh Dhamija founded, built and sold online travel agency ebookers, before serving as a Member of the European Parliament. His latest book, The Indian Century, will be out soon.