My blog

Category: Opinion

  • Mohamed Amersi: “We ignore the Middle East at our peril”

    Russia is today’s global hotspot but we ignore the Middle East at our peril, according to businessman and philanthropist Mohamed Amersi

    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has galvanised the international community and triggered a combination of diplomatic condemnation and economic sanctions, unprecedented in recent years.

    Seen from a UK perspective, the response to Russia’s actions has been swift and strong. It has re-energised NATO and united the EU whilst giving Britain an opportunity to show it can still play a leading role on the world stage in the post-Brexit era.

    But, despite the formidable international coalition ranged against Russia, we should not make the mistake of thinking that the rest of the world sees the conflict in exactly the terms that we do.

    In the Middle East, the situation is more nuanced. On February 28th, four days after the invasion, the Arab League, which represents 22 Arab states, issued a statement that failed to condemn Russia and was lukewarm towards the Ukrainian cause. The UAE abstained when the first UN Resolution condemning Russia’s invasion was proposed.

    Responses have hardened since then, but nevertheless there remains a body of opinion that the West is guilty of double standards and hypocrisy. Critics ask: are Russia’s actions in Ukraine so different from the wars waged by the US and Britain in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya?

    If there is to be a diplomatic reset what does that mean for the Israel-Palestine question or the conflict in Yemen and Libya? Why was the same approach not applied to refugees fleeing devastation in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan? Sceptics argue say that countries of the Middle East are often used as a playground to settle scores by the use of proxies and ask whether there are parallels with Ukraine.

    During my career as a lawyer, financier and entrepreneur, I visited all but one of the 22 countries in the Middle East and Africa (MENA) region. I am concerned that the region is so little understood by the new crop of parliamentarians, even though it is gripped by huge geo-political issues which will return to centre stage and ultimately have as great an impact as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    Sadly, this attitude is not confined to backbench MPs who may not be primarily focused on international affairs. It also appears to be shared by Boris Johnson’s government.

    Earlier this year, he abolished the Middle East and North Africa portfolio held by James Cleverly and made him minister for Europe and North America instead. Despite mounting tensions and ongoing wars in the region, the Government does not seem to believe it needs a dedicated MENA minister, merging the role with others in the department. It is too early to tell whether splitting the Middle East role amongst three Ministers will prove more engaging than having a single Minister, given that conflicts in the MENA region are all inter-connected.

    That smacks of a “Little Britain approach” and it makes no sense. The potential for further conflicts in the Middle East should alone be enough to make it a key area of foreign policy for the Government. But, in addition, the region is crucial to its ambitions of promoting a ‘Global Britain’ in the post-Brexit trading world.

    With its long history in the region, the UK has relationships which could give it an advantage over other trading blocs, but only if they are deployed judiciously. Yet the Conservative Party currently has no group representing its interests in the region.

    The Conservative Middle East Council (CMEC), which was established in 1980, disaffiliated from the Party in 2019, having stayed from its founding principles to foster better understanding of issues in Palestine and the wider Middle East. Instead, it has become closely aligned to certain Gulf States, raising funds from unknown donors; organising junkets; and receiving payment for its services.

    In 2020, I was asked to discuss the establishment of a new organisation fully affiliated to the Conservative Party with the objective of promoting understanding and cooperation between the party and the countries of the MENA region.

    My vision for Conservative Friends of the Middle East and Africa (Comena), is as a friendship group which organises exchange visits, lectures and cultural events to promote greater understanding of the region and stronger ties with members of the Arab Diplomatic Corps in London, opinion leaders across the Arab world and with the MENA diaspora in the UK.

    The vision embraces the entire MENA region, rather than ignoring North Africa and the Levant. No funding or funders would be allowed to dictate the agenda and the group would exert a positive influence through mutual understanding, co-operation, and dialogue. Promoting peace and prosperity throughout the region would be our goals.

    More than 100 parliamentarians, diplomats and Middle East experts expressed interest in membership, subject to its affiliation with the party and complying with its constitution. The UK needs to re-set its relationships in the Middle East and Comena could give this vital work fresh impetus because it would be a new organisation, focused on the region’s future, not its past.

  • Stuart Thomson on unleashing the power of autonomy in the workplace

    Stuart Thomson

    In any role, one essential question to ask is: ‘How much autonomy do I have?’ That will tell you a lot about your role, prospects and the type of organisation you work for. That one question can set you on an important future path.

    The question of autonomy in any workplace will tell you about the level of independence and self-governance that you can enjoy in your role. It is also provides an indication about your role in decision-making processes.

    The challenge

    Any employer should be able to give a good answer about autonomy. If they can then it says a lot about the consideration that has been given to granting employees the freedom to make choices. How much they are allowed to exercise their judgment and under what circumstances. How much ownership they have over their own work. It demonstrates that they know and understand how autonomy works at all levels and how it can benefit an organisation as well as an individual.

    Are you there to play a role in a system or a process or are you able to push boundaries? There will, of course, be limits but if an organisation is looking to deliver a service to clients, develop new products or seek to be innovative then a role for autonomy is critical.

    Autonomy allows individuals to have some control over their tasks, schedules, and approach to their responsibilities.

     

    A more autonomous approach means that line managers are not constantly keeping a check or exerting high levels of micromanagement.

    It is the type of question that should be asked in any interview. It can help you decide whether it is an organisation you really want to commit to.

    The benefits

    What does it deliver for you and the organisation you work for?

    1)    Increased motivation – a higher level of autonomy increases personal accountability and also motivation among employees. There is a feeling that ‘we are all in this together’.

    2)    Delivery of new ideas – autonomy provides the space to enhance creativity and innovation. When an individual knows that they are not going to face criticism for exploring new ideas or taking risks then it builds an environment that supports innovation.

    3)    Improved job satisfaction – having control over work tasks and a working day can lead to higher levels of job satisfaction. An individual is often better able to recognise their own strengths, and weaknesses, so can align their work with them.

    4)    Building your own path – going a step further, recognising those very strengths and weaknesses, fosters a path of continuous professional development and learning. That helps individuals and organisations.

    5)    A thirst for new challenges – with the skills in place, individuals feel better able to face new challenges and take on more responsibility. The path is one towards building and equipping the leaders of the future.

    There are studies that have shown that autonomy delivers improved productivity. Many organisations have a productivity challenge so autonomy is one way of addressing that.

    What do you need?

     

    Autonomy in a role is beneficial but always consider the support mechanisms that go with it. You will still need guidance, feedback, and a supportive work environment. Can you rely in a line manager to provide that or is there a risk of being cut adrift? You also need to think about how much autonomy you feel comfortable with at the stage of your career. There is no one fixed level, it can vary over time. With autonomy comes responsibility that you need to take ownership of.

    You may wish for a work environment in which you are respected enough to enjoy autonomy and that should be on offer. But autonomy can increase over time and a supportive environment is needed. Autonomy can help you to use your unique abilities to contribute to the success now and in the future of an organisation

  • Dinesh Dhamija: Indian billionaire snaps up London mansion for £113 million

    Dinesh Dhamija

    Signalling a changing of the guard in London’s headiest property markets, Indian billionaire Ravi Ruia has bought the £113 million Hanover Lodge in Regent’s Park from Russia’s Andrey Goncharenko.

    Among the highest prices ever paid for a London house, the transaction demonstrates that wealthy Indians are now serious rivals to the Russian and Middle Eastern buyers who have dominated upscale purchases in recent years.

    The Ukraine conflict has wiped out much of the Russian interest (although Goncharenko is apparently not on the sanctions list). Fellow Russians such as Roman Abramovich, who owned Chelsea Football Club, and his associate Alexander Frolov, who owned a £15 million apartment in Knightsbridge, have beaten a hasty retreat.

    More than £18 billion worth of Russian assets in the UK were seized following the invasion of Ukraine, along with at least 102 properties adding up to further billions.

    With the international community turning its attention and favour to India, as it seeks to isolate Russia, London’s property agents are eagerly looking towards Mumbai and Delhi, anticipating a new wave of buyers for the vast stock of grand homes left by the Russians.

    This newfound appetite for London real estate could herald a stream of investment in other British assets, as the prospect of a trade deal between India and the UK draws closer and Indian investors identify more opportunities. Indian PM Narendra Modi’s Make In India programme has spurred the country’s manufacturers and exporters into action.

    Hanover Lodge spans 2,400 square meters of prime central London real estate, complete with a gym, sauna, gallery and swimming pool which can be converted into a ballroom. It was completed in 1827 and designed by John Nash, the architect of Buckingham Palace and other British gems, including Clarence House – also owned by the Royal Family – Marble Arch on the corner of Hyde Park, and the Brighton Pavilion.

    For the Mumbai-based Ruia, whose Essar conglomerate spans steel, oil, gas, power, shipping and logistics, employs 7,000 people and turns over $13 billion a year, the purchase will provide a suitably grand location from which to entertain. Hanover Lodge once belonged to the French ambassador to Britain and later to Conservative peer Raj Kumar Bagri before he sold it to Goncharenko in 2012.

    London is now home to more than a dozen billionaires of Indian heritage, including GP Hinduja, Lakshmi Mittal and Sri Prakash Lohia, each of whom has acquired vast mansions at the very top end of the scale. GP Hinduja paid £350 million for the Old War Office in Whitehall and then spent a further £900 million renovating the building and converting it into a sumptuous hotel and apartments, expected to have a price tag of £100 million each.

    So Ruia will have no trouble locating friendly faces, with mansions just as fabulous as his.

    Dinesh Dhamija founded, built and sold online travel agency ebookers, before serving as a Member of the European Parliament. His latest book, The Indian Century, will be published later this year.

     

    Photo credit: Spdugun67 under Wikipedia Commons Licence 4.0

  • Buddhdev Pandya on the crucial question of AI and healthcare

    Buddhdev Pandya

     

    The concept of Artificial Intelligence, known as AI, is now a major point of discussion in the healthcare sectors and also the users of NHS. The world of artificial intelligence is a field of computer science that focuses on the development of intelligent machines and systems capable of performing tasks that typically require human intelligence. AI is based on the concept of creating computer systems that can learn, reason, problem-solve, and adapt based on data and experience.

    At its core, AI is built on algorithms and mathematical models that enable machines to process and analyze data, recognize patterns, make predictions, and take actions or make decisions. These algorithms can be designed to mimic human cognitive processes, such as perception, reasoning, learning, and problem-solving.

    Among its key components and approaches are Machine Learning, which involves machines learning from data and improving performance without being explicitly programmed. There is also the potential of Deep learning models, which can handle complex data, such as images or natural language, by hierarchically learning representations of the data. This is known as Natural Language Processing (NLP).

    One of the most valuable assets of AI is the ability of machines to understand and interpret visual information from images or videos. This enables machines to recognize objects, detect patterns, and extract meaningful information from visual data.

    Most of us are familiar with Robotics, which is also based on computer technology enabling machines to perceive and interact with their environment, make autonomous decisions, and perform physical tasks.

    Overall, AI is a multidisciplinary field that combines computer science, mathematics, statistics, and cognitive science to create intelligent systems that can simulate human intelligence and perform tasks that were traditionally exclusive to humans. AI has the potential to significantly benefit the patient experience in hospitals.

    The most important focus for any patient is the anxiety due to the delay in accessing a consultant and the expectations regarding the efficiency of the diagnostic process and follow-up care. The essence of the process is effective and simplified communication, as well as the quality of care. We have been accustomed to being seen by a medical professional face to face, which has a huge feel-good factor and instils confidence in the establishment.

    Many users of our NHS services are sceptical of the changing culture of making appointments to see their GP and feel disfranchised when contacted by various support staff from the surgery or hospital outpatient department.

    It is important to realize that we are already witnessing the computerization of medical records and the appointment system to ensure more efficient management of these processes. Patient records are shared digitally, allowing the entire medical record to be accessed during consultations instead of waiting for physical transfers between the GP surgery, testing laboratories, radiologists, and hospital consultants.

    This is all part of the early introduction of the AI system, which is now being taken to a more advanced level for its use in diagnostic, treatment, and aftercare programs. AI can be incredibly useful in monitoring regional health conditions and analysing the responses of local GPs, even though it may sometimes cause discomforting thoughts. It is an asset, a complementary process with the ability to aid in the surveillance and early detection of disease outbreaks, track the spread of infectious diseases, and identify potential health risks in specific regions.

    As technology updates with medical knowledge, it becomes more efficient at interpreting medical data, such as patient symptoms, test results, and medical histories, to support healthcare professionals in making accurate diagnoses and treatment recommendations. The cumulative data can also help provide more accurate evidence-based guidelines and suggest appropriate courses of action.

    As we age and learn more about various conditions, advancements in AI technology would be able to provide us with early warnings of health risks and the early stages of these conditions.

    AI is increasingly used in various medical fields for surgeries and life-saving procedures. Robotic surgery is one application known for its use in assisting surgeons in performing minimally invasive surgeries with enhanced precision and control. AI, radiology, and imaging are already used as aids in disease detection and diagnosis, improving accuracy and expediting the diagnostic process.

    Similarly, AI is enabling early detection of heart conditions and assisting in cardiac procedures.

    Robotic equipment is used in various surgical procedures across different medical specialties. For example, Robotic-assisted Surgery such as the da Vinci Surgical System is commonly used.

    Other areas such as the removal of the prostate gland for the treatment of prostate cancer, hysterectomy for the removal of the uterus, colorectal surgery involving the colon and rectum, removal of the gallbladder (cholecystectomy), and hernia repair. Robotic systems are used in orthopaedic surgeries to improve precision and accuracy, as well as in spinal procedures, such as spinal fusion or minimally invasive surgeries. Robotic guidance can be used for precise localization and navigation in neurosurgical procedures, including brain tumour removal or deep brain stimulation. Other surgeries include Bariatric Surgery, Thoracic Surgery, and Urological Surgery.

    It’s important to note that the application of robotic equipment may vary between hospitals and surgical teams, and the specific procedures performed using robotic technology can expand as advancements continue in the field of robotic surgery.

    Overall, AI in medicine complements healthcare professionals by providing additional insights and assistance. However, it’s crucial to emphasize that human expertise and decision-making remain vital, as AI is designed to augment rather than replace medical professionals in providing optimal patient care.

    Many of us may find ourselves watching a screen with soothing voices tailored to our moods to compensate for the absence of GPs, making it difficult to access face-to-face appointments. Who knows, a well-designed robotic nurse with a soothing voice accompanied by our preferred music may appear to gather our vital medical details and prescribe the appropriate dosage.

    And then, robotic vehicles with four wheels could deliver medicine from the pharmacists to our doorsteps, similar to the delivery of groceries from a local store.

    Many individuals with severe disabilities or those living alone can be monitored and supported in various ways using AI technology, which holds significant promise in these areas. However, it’s important to note that AI should always complement human expertise rather than entirely replace it.

    The adoption of technological advances in clinical management depends on the resources available to the NHS and the development of skills among clinicians and other associated staff. The new generation is becoming more accustomed to technology as their lives revolve around laptops, tablets, and mobile devices. However, we must also empower the older generation and those facing social and economic disadvantages to ensure they are not left behind. It is essential to urge those responsible for planning well-being strategies for the community to make a serious effort to provide adequate resources and support the “third sector,” as well as charities, to compensate for the lack of accessibility to education and necessary skills.

    Society should never hinder innovation and research in science and technology related to our health or any aspects of the environment. The evolution of science is a natural phenomenon that progresses towards greater sophistication. It is in our human nature to explore more and more in order to gain benefits. The key is to ensure that we find ways to understand its intricate functioning and structures to manage and utilize them to our advantage.

     

    Buddhdev Pandya MBE is founder and chief editor of a medical journal, Swasthya for healthcare professionals. He served as Director of British Association of Physicians of Indian Origin, British International Doctors Association and British Indian Psychiatrists Association 

     

  • Dinesh Dhamija: India wants its own chips

    Dinesh Dhamija

    Fed up with buying expensive semiconductors from Taiwan, Japan and the United States, the Indian government is luring international chipmakers with a $10 billion subsidy.

    The country’s first semiconductor plant will start construction in August, with US-based Micron Technology due to start production at the $2.75 billion facility by December 2024.

    “This is the fastest for any country to set up a new industry,” said Ashwini Viashnaw, Indian minister of electronics and information technology. He is keen to bring this crucial technology in-house, as India builds up its smartphone and electric vehicle manufacturing base, which both rely heavily upon sophisticated chips.

    The move is part of a larger agenda: “The Government of India aspires to position India among the world’s top five scientific powers,” says the India Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF). “India is aggressively working towards establishing itself as a leader in industrialisation and technological development.”

    Part of the drive is to improve security of supply, to forestall the reliance upon Chinese vendors of parts for solar energy systems, for example, or of superconducting microprocessors and part is to boost employment and the overall economy.

    As Thamashi De Silva at Capital Economics argues, the key to unlocking the India’s demographic potential is to build more factories and to develop a “globally competitive and labor-intensive manufacturing sector.” Yet restrictive labour laws, high import duties and troubling logistics issues have so far dissuaded many potential manufacturers. Countries such as Taiwan and Vietnam have trumped India in recent years, while the country’s logistics costs remain higher than those of China, South Korea, Japan, Malaysia and Thailand, according to figures from the World Bank.

    Morgan Stanley’s 2022 report ‘Investment Opportunities in India’ predicts that global outsourcing spending will rise from $180 billion a year to $500 billion a year by 2030, meaning that India is “poised to become the factory to the world, as corporate tax cuts, investment incentives and infrastructure spending help drive capital investments in manufacturing.”

    “Multinationals are now buoyant about the prospects of investing in India, and the government is helping their cause by investing in infrastructure as well as supplying land for building factories,” said Upasana Chachra, Morgan Stanley’s Chief India Economist. If multinationals respond to these incentives, as the report writers believe they will, manufacturing’s share of India’s GDP could jump from 15 per cent to 21 per cent by 2031, doubling the country’s export market share.

    Electronics manufacture is at the heart of India’s economic ambitions. Invest India predicts that domestic demand for consumer electronics will more than double in four years, from $9.8 billion in 2021 to $21.18 billion in 2025, particularly in the smartphone market, as the country’s 1.3 billion mobile phone subscribers upgrade their handsets. “This presents a huge opportunity for companies and investors looking to tap into the manufacture of smartphones and other electronic devices,” wrote Aditi Singh in an Invest India report.

    If India’s $10 billion chipmaking gamble pays off, it could yield the most extraordinary pay-out, further fuelling the country’s already astonishing economic ascent.

    Dinesh Dhamija founded, built and sold online travel agency ebookers, before serving as a Member of the European Parliament. His latest book, The Indian Century, will be published later this year.

  • Omar Sabbagh’s Letter from Cairo

    Omar Sabbagh

     

    It’s roughly eight o’clock in the evening and I’m seated on the balcony of my rented suite here in Zamalek, Cairo.  The muezzin in the distance sounds like a radio above the hurly-burly, as the cars rushing past in the farther or nearer distance punctuate the streets, so many commas, so many colons, so many periods.  I’m sipping a whiskey, brought from home, because to purchase glass by glass in any reputable joint would cost an arm and a leg.

    To that extent Cairo mores have more in common with Dubai than they do with that other Middle Eastern metropolis that I know, Beirut.  That said, peering from this balcony, the panning, panoramic sight that meets the eye reminds one gently of Beirut, though on a far grander scale.  The same dollops of gutted housing, the same mixture of boutique shops and those far more sundry, the same muted hysteria, the same due portion of schizophrenia.

    There’s nothing like a Middle Eastern capital for that odd mélange of oddness and the even.  The exception, like the rule, are both: exceptional and to be expected.  And strolling down the street, with a tip from my wife, more conversant with the space, I find a place to be seated for a drink or two, or three.  Without naming names, it’s a joint I find so reminiscent of others in Beirut, before Beirut’s dire downward slump.  The same mix of the swanky and refined with the everyday.  A place neither for elites, necessarily, nor for everyman.  The clientele, as far as I can gather, veering from professional types to university graduates, from the middle-aged and beyond to the nubile and life-ready.  A place, too, I notice, harboring foreigners and tourists like myself, as well as locals to the city, Cairo.  Zamalek, this particular part of Cairo, is an island, cosseted by the Nile.  It is known for its embassies and for its more cosmopolitan airs and graces.  And known, too, for its nightlife; and where I’ve ended up is a case in point.

     

    I speak to a few locals and the comparison with Beirut seems to be felt as a harbinger.  Though not collapsing like Beirut, the feeling seems to be similar: everyday life too expensive for the living, the local currency suffering before the almighty dollar, among other economic ills.  A young woman I met, aged twenty-four, is unemployed.  Having, with parental help, paid hundreds of thousands of dollars for a top-notch university education in Cairo, she finds herself now without a job in her field, of Marketing and Communications.  She told me that for any young woman who wants to live beyond the threshold of the family-setting, who wants to strike out on her own, the odds are always against her.  If not employed in a foreign or international company of some sort, and if not willing to bide by family-control, her only option is to be either, unemployed, or to work in a sales job at the equivalent of a call-center – something not too palatable to a relatively fresh graduate, expecting far more.

     

    And yet, I had fun; before me a bottle of ‘Stella,’ a beer so local to the place it harks back to Egyptian independence, standing now as an icon for the same.  The place itself, on enquiry, also dating its existence to the very early 1970’s.  Those were still well-nigh revolutionary days.  It made me think of my father, still at that time, just about, a youngish pan-Arab nationalist, a youngish Nasserite, if based in Lebanon.  And it made me think, too, of one of the lessons he’d learned and relayed to me from those times.  Many if not most of the problems of the Arab world in recent history could be laid at the door of too much hopefulness.  They, young revolutionaries, had aimed to change things root-and-branch.  And when those gambits failed, a vacuum ensued, a wide space beneath those high-billed aims.  Hence, the rise and entrance of tyrannical dictators across the Middle East, men like Saddam Hussein.  Hence, that is to say: the rigmaroles and the quagmires of the modern Arab world, nearly anywhere you look.  Had the aims been lower, had they not gone for wholesale revolution, but for steady-paced reform, my father seemed to think, then the history of our times would have been so much different.

     

    And yet, to repeat, I’d a very enjoyable evening.  For all its problems, the ambience of a bar or pub in a place like Zamalek, in Cairo, as in Beirut (even to this day) is dynamic.  Perhaps people are just more interesting when they’re troubled?  When all is fine and dandy, very little thinking in any real or impactful sense gets done.  Sadness and sorrow, I believe to this day, are the progenitors of originality.  And there’s something so very, dearly fresh (as well as dilapidated) about the streets of Zamalek, Cairo.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • Dinesh Dhamija: Investors’ Confidence in India Grows

    Dinesh Dhamija

     

    This week, one of the world’s foremost economic rating agencies, S&P Global, made a striking prediction.

     

    Not only will India lead the global growth rankings this year, but for the following two years as well. It predicts a 6.7 per cent uplift in GDP, sustained through to 2026. Only Vietnam and the Philippines, with prospective growth of 6.6 per cent and 6.1 per cent, come close.

     

    These new figures confirm for many investors what they have suspected for some time. India’s growth story is not a flash in the pan, triggered by a temporary lull in Chinese growth or by a burst of enthusiasm for its tech services. It is a systemic, fully-fledged economic phenomenon which is changing the course of global investment and wealth patterns.

     

    For financial analyst Hamish McRae, there are “stunning opportunities” to invest in India, due to its rapid economic growth and the huge number of young people joining the technology-driven businesses springing up across the country. “For many professional fund managers, it is now India – not China – that represents one of the world’s most exciting long-term investment opportunities,” says McRae.

     

    For stock market investors, a key difference is India’s democratic constitution and the rule of law. “This means that its stock market, and the businesses that are listed on it, are not at the mercy of state interference as had happened recently in China. Investing in India is an unencumbered financial bet on the country’s future,” he adds.

     

    There will be 25 million Indian households earning more than $35,000 per year by 2032, according to a Morgan Stanley report, bringing a host of new products and services into play across the country. Other research papers show idiosyncratic results for economic growth across Indian demographics: Since 2019, for example, growth in internet use in rural India has been much higher than in urban areas, with female internet users growing at almost three times the rate of male users.

     

    “India is looking really good,” says Investment Trust Mobius’s manager Carlos Hardenberg. “It is led by a pro-business government. [Prime Minister Narendra] Modi has stripped away layers of bureaucracy that previously made doing business in India a nightmare. It’s embarked on ambitious digitalisation programmes and helped ensure the population has widespread access to banking.”

     

    This is a hard-nosed analysis of what makes India a good option, from one of the world’s most successful emerging market investors. There are hundreds of reasons to applaud India’s recent economic ascent, from bringing millions out of poverty to restoring the pride of the nation, but for many outside India, the commercial opportunities are exceptional.

     

    “Before Modi, India was a dysfunctional economy and heavily based on agriculture,” says fellow emerging markets manager Charles Jillings. “The mix of tax reforms and cuts that he has introduced are feeding through to economic growth.”

    Head of macroeconomic research for Morgan Stanley’s emerging markets equity team Jitania Kandhari explains how the gulf between the opportunities offered by India and China has grown: “The things not working for China today are working for India,” she says. “China is heavily indebted; it is facing deglobalisation as geopolitical tensions rise, and it has a shrinking working age population. Plus, China’s economy has already digitized, with the digital economy accounting for about 40 per cent of GDP, up from 5 per cent in 2005.”

     

    The difference is stark: in China labour costs up to three times as much as in India. And things are changing rapidly. In February 2021, China made up 40 per cent of the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Markets index. By the end of 2022 it was down to 25 per cent, with India the main beneficiary.

     

    Now is the time to invest in the growth story of the century.

     

    Dinesh Dhamija founded, built and sold online travel agency ebookers, before serving as a Member of the European Parliament. His latest book, The Indian Century, will be published later this year.

     

  • Sir Bill Wiggin on a career in politics: “Don’t do it thinking you’ll come out looking like a hero.”

    Sir Bill Wiggin

     

    People often ask me about a career in politics. The way I describe it to people is: “Do you remember that scene in Notting Hill (1999) when Rhys Ifans opens the door in his underpants and there they all are taking his picture?” The reality is just like that, when you’re in trouble in British politics – and it’s not nice.

    That’s why British journalists are different to everybody else in the world, because they create this very difficult atmosphere for those who want to serve the British people.

    It doesn’t happen in other countries. For example, Macron refused to allow pictures of him on a jet-ski in a shop opposite his residence. That level of interference is something that we don’t have here. We don’t have a proper regulator either, and it’s really important that people know that if they’re going to get into politics.

    Of course, freedom of the press is a good thing, but you’ve got to remember that bad news is what sells. Therefore, you will not get good coverage if you’re a politician. Anyone who thinks going into politics is going to make them look like a hero is just wrong – and the higher you go up the greasy pole, the worse that becomes.

    When I was first elected, Tony Blair was Prime Minister. Blair was an extremely competent performer in the House of Commons: he didn’t always tell the truth exactly as I saw it, putting it gently. When I challenged people about it, they said, “Yeah, but everyone knew he’d just made it up, and they still voted for it.” Since then he has been vilified, and when he was knighted, it all came out again.

    But his crime seems to have been to make the Labour Party electable, which they don’t really like. After Blair, Gordon Brown came in and threw his telephones around and was also vilified. And then David Cameron won the election, and thanks to Greensill he has been vilified. Theresa May is next – so far, so good for her – although her Brexit experience was pretty ghastly. Then Boris was put through the mangle for his ‘partygate’ stuff. This was a prime minister who was dealing with a global pandemic, the departure of Britain from the European Union, and Ukraine. These were some really enormous political challenges, and he was attacked for whether or not he attended a party that Dominic Cummings put in his diary as a staff meeting. If people want a career in politics after seeing that, I think they believe it won’t happen to them. And my experience is, they’re wrong. It will.

    Every time there’s a general election, there’s a new entry of young or certainly new MPs. One by one they are picked off, and it can be something they didn’t do. It doesn’t have to be true and it doesn’t have to be fair: none of that matters. Once you’re in politics, you are not only fair game, but you’re not even protected by the truth. Your weapon is your ability to speak in the House of Commons, without fear or favour, and you cannot be sued. You can genuinely tell the truth as you see it, and there’s nothing rich people can do to stop you. That is a really powerful weapon in the fight for freedom and truth, which in the 21st century, with the extraordinary ability we have to communicate with one another, should be the highest principle.

    What you read on the internet should be telling you the truth, or it should be couched in a way that you can discount it. That’s what I think young people today should be pushing for. At the moment, we’re all trapped in the idea that if it’s on the internet, then it must be true. I tested this at a school I spoke to recently where they said I was anti-gay marriage. And I’m not! And when I told them that, their faces all seemed to say, “What? But I read it!” That is what you are up against when you put yourself forward for a career in politics.

     

    Sir Bill Wiggin is the MP for North Herefordshire

     

  • Thinking Big: Dinesh Dhamija on Modi’s visit to the US

    Dinesh Dhamija

    Many state visits are just window-dressing. Politicians make vague promises of lasting friendship, business leaders discuss investment opportunities, and the media queries the visiting leader’s human rights record.

    There is something about Narendra Modi’s visit to the United States this week which feels different. It’s not just the lavish welcome that he’s receiving: a full State visit, reserved for only a small handful of world leaders; not just the size of the trade, technology, military, energy and political cooperation that could result; not even the explicit treatment of India as a bulwark against Chinese aggression.

    What feels different is India’s status.

    Americans love big things. They love being the world’s biggest economy, with the biggest companies, cars, planes. So, when India announced earlier this year that it is now the world’s most populous country, Americans paid attention. They also discovered that India had overtaken Great Britain as the world’s fifth largest economy.

    Big news! Suddenly, Americans engaged with the Indian story in lots of different ways. In April 2023, the Harvard Business Review published a feature entitled “The US-India Relationship is Key to the Future of Tech” which laid out the potential benefits of a US-India corridor of investment, in which India would supplant China as a partner in supply chains, innovation hubs and joint ventures. “This makes it the most important geo-economic partner for the United States today as it ‘re-globalises’ with greater concern for national security and resilience,” wrote the author.

    Already, these connections are growing stronger. In January 2023, India and America’s National Security Advisors Ajit Doval and Jake Sullivan launched the United States-India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies. New collaborations on artificial intelligence, healthcare and education can place India at the centre of future value chains, building on its well-established role as the world’s back office.

    In 2047, India is likely to have 1.5 billion internet users, half a billion electric vehicles, and a financial system processing 300 billion transactions annually. This week Jake Sullivan described the India-United States relationship as “one of the defining partnerships of our age.”

    In all kinds of ways, India has become an innovator and pacesetter. Its Aadhaar programme is “the world’s largest and most sophisticated biometric identification system,” according to the Harvard Business Review, making the US social security ID system look dated and inefficient.

    Instead of seeing India as a source of cheap labour, US businesses “should view India has been a genuine hub of innovation,” announced the Harvard Business Review. And in a 2023 report, PricewaterhouseCoopers claimed that India is beginning to rival China and the United States in its tech development, “with tech companies equal in their sophistication and prominence to international counterparts.” It forecasts that India’s economy will be the world’s third largest by 2030 and that its GDP could overtake that of the US by 2060.

    Just one generation away from becoming the world’s largest economy?

    That’s even bigger news.

     

    Dinesh Dhamija founded, built and sold online travel agency ebookers, before serving as a Member of the European Parliament. His latest book, The Indian Century, will be published later this year.

  • Henry Blofeld on his father, his education and the great cricketers of the past

    Henry Blofeld

    When I think back at my education, it’s important that my father was a great reader aloud which is something which happens less today. He not only had a beautiful voice, but was extremely articulate and was really an academic I suppose. Wodehouse was one of those authors he introduced me to between the ages of 10 and 16. Of course, those books have dated a bit but they’re very funny indeed.

    What was the particular impact of Wodehouse on me? There’s a book by Wodehouse Psmith in the City – you need to read the first word without the ‘P’ because as Wodehouse says, ‘the P is silent’ – which describes an extraordinarily similar path to my early career. Wodehouse was in the City, and so was I; both of us were rather out of place and rather eager to leave. Perhaps that’s part of my kinship with him.

    Nowadays a lot of my memories of cricket might be described as somewhat ancient. I see myself as a historian, reminding fans of today about the past. as the Ashes roll round again, I think of the great jousts of the past.

    One mentor for me was the great writer John Arlott, who adored Hobbs – and Jack Hobbs could be said to be the greatest batsman ever produced. He played his first test match in Melbourne in 1907. And played his last test in 1930 – he and Sutcliffe together were the most extraordinary pair, and particularly noted for the runs they made in old-fashioned sticky wickets in Australia. He must have been the most supreme technician and was every bit as good in defence as Geoffrey Boycott but in attack lived in another world.

    I hope that this Ashes series will be played in the right spirit. WG Grace was another amazing cricketer – he was one of the greats, but not a great man. In fact, he comes quite badly out of the chapter in my book. For example, in the match in 1882, when Grace ran out Jones – that was entirely reprehensible and an appalling thing to do. It’s worth remembering that it was more appalling in 1882, than it was in 1982.

    In that year, as many cricket fans know, Botham ran Boycott out at Christchurch – but that was done deliberately as he was sent in to run him out. It took him two balls, and was one of the funniest things I’ve ever seen. Boycott pushed the deliver to the offside, and  there there ensued a lot of sashaying up the pitch – and then the whole rigmarole of: “Yes,  no – wait!” Once he was out, Boycott said: “Do you know what I’ve done? And Botham said: “I’ve run you out, you –—“.  I can’t remember precisely what word he used, but it was something very flowery. On that occasion, Boycott withdrew in a sulk.

    Of course, they say the game has changed and become punchier. That might be true but it can also be done. Sometimes I hear people reminiscing about sedate appeals in the interwar years. But if you look at photographs of cricket in the old days, they all go up like mad. Perhaps distance has leant a certain enchantment. Do you think there was an age in life when bowlers were uncorrupted? All that we know about human nature makes that seem unlikely.

    I am often asked about my famous surname. I knew Ian Fleming a bit, but I didn’t exactly think much of him – and I don’t go to the Bond films to see my family name written in lights. Fleming and I were elected to Boodle’s on the same day. I got to know Ian quite well, which is why I had dinner with him and my first wife in Jamaica, when I was 22. I was quite young to be meeting such well-known people. I suppose that did make me more confident later on.

    Journalism has changed too. In the early days of broadcasting, I would do reports of county matches, stopwatch in hand. It was a very, very hairy business and to do that one had to have a certain confidence. For instance, I can remember sitting on a sack of sawdust in the groundsman’s office at Sydney at the back of the Noble stand without any windows at all, doing a report for Sport on Four. I remember other extraordinary situations. I can remember doing reporting on a total eclipse of the sun from Bombay, and describing the riots in Lahore during the 1977 Test Match.

    I shall enjoy the Ashes but am never so excited by the one-dayers. I can see the point of One Day Cricket in the same way I can see the point of instant coffee – which I find quite undrinkable. One Day Cricket was introduced as a financial palliative, and it’s not ideal in my view. Perhaps one day we’ll have the ultimate cricket match where each side will have one ball, bowled in front of 100,000 people.

     

    Henry Blofeld’s new book is Ten to Win…and the Last Man In is out now